Next week's macro outlook: Market focuses on Fed chair nominee, GDP data tests Fed's rate cut results

Dec 21, 2025 10:48:03

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According to Jinshi News, next week will welcome the Christmas market, with U.S. stocks closing early on Wednesday and remaining closed all day on Thursday. The market is focused on whether Trump will announce the nominee for the Federal Reserve Chair during the Christmas period. Currently, Kevin Hasset, the Director of the National Economic Council, has a significantly higher probability of becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair at about 54%. Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh has a nomination probability of about 21%, while Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has a nomination probability of about 14%. Important macro events and data for next week are as follows:

Tuesday:

U.S. Q3 real GDP annualized quarterly rate preliminary;
U.S. Q3 real personal consumption expenditures quarterly rate preliminary;
U.S. Q3 core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate preliminary;

Wednesday:

Bank of Canada releases monetary policy meeting minutes;
U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20;

Thursday:

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo delivers a speech at the Japan Business Federation;
Japan's November unemployment rate;

Market Closure Reminder: The Hong Kong Stock Exchange will have a half-day session on Wednesday, and the New York Stock Exchange will close early at 02:00 Beijing time on the 25th; U.S. stocks will be closed on Thursday for Christmas.

(Source)