Nic Carter: Quantum computing is only an engineering challenge away from breaking Bitcoin, with 1.7 million Bitcoins at risk of being attacked

The father of smart contracts and co-founder of Castle Island Ventures, Nic Carter, published a lengthy article stating that renowned quantum theorist and scholar Scott Aaronson's research shows that quantum computing is merely an extremely difficult engineering problem away from breaking Bitcoin, rather than requiring new foundational physics discoveries.

Nic Carter pointed out that theoretically, Bitcoin can undergo a soft fork and adopt post-quantum (PQ) signature schemes. There are indeed some quantum-resistant cryptographic signature schemes available. However, the main issue lies in determining the specific post-quantum scheme, organizing the soft fork, and the arduous task of migrating tens of millions of addresses with balances. Therefore, the mitigation measures required for Bitcoin to guard against quantum computing attacks may take nearly a decade.

Additionally, since a large amount of vulnerable Bitcoin is stored in abandoned addresses, and the owners of these addresses cannot be forced to transfer their Bitcoin, even if Bitcoin upgrades to post-quantum signatures, it still faces the risk of 1.7 million Bitcoins being suddenly stolen by quantum attackers. Bitcoin not only needs to be upgraded in an orderly and timely manner, but Bitcoin holders must also collectively agree to seize these 1.7 million Bitcoins to eliminate this risk—something unprecedented in Bitcoin's history.

As a result, Nic Carter urged and called on the Bitcoin community and developers to take mitigation measures as soon as possible, rather than viewing the threat of quantum computing with indifference and excessive optimism.