Analysis: Approximately $23 billion in Bitcoin options will expire next Friday, potentially exacerbating the already high volatility

According to Bloomberg, the options market shows that Bitcoin is under significant pressure as it enters the final weeks of 2025, with approximately $23 billion in contracts expiring next Friday, which could exacerbate the already high volatility. This amount accounts for more than half of all open contracts on the Deribit platform.

Nick Forster, founder of Derive.xyz, stated, "Bitcoin's positions remain clearly bearish. The 30-day volatility has rebounded to around 45%, while the skew hovers around -5%. The longer-term skew is also anchored at around -5%, indicating that traders are pricing in continued downside risks for the first and second quarters due to ongoing selling pressure from previously inactive wallets that is suppressing spot prices." The positioning around the December 26 contract expiration reflects this divergence.

Call options are concentrated at strike prices of $100,000 and $120,000, suggesting that the market remains optimistic about a year-end rebound. However, put options have recently dominated, with a large accumulation of put option exposure at the $85,000 strike price. Additionally, traders expect the market to reposition around two catalysts: first, hedging before MSCI makes a decision on January 15, which may exclude companies holding more than 50% of their assets in crypto from its index; second, a resurgence of call overwriting fund flows.