Analysis: The recent decline of Bitcoin shows signs of "decoupling" from the US stock market

Analysis indicates that Bitcoin is heading towards its fourth annual decline in history, and this is the first time such a pullback has occurred without being accompanied by a major scandal or a systemic collapse in the industry. This downturn is happening against a backdrop of increased institutional participation, a maturing regulatory environment, and public support for the crypto industry from U.S. President Trump, which has taken the market by surprise.

Since reaching an all-time high above $126,000 in early October, Bitcoin has quickly retraced, with current trading volumes being sluggish as investors continue to withdraw from related products. Data shows that since October 10, there has been a net outflow of over $5.2 billion from Bitcoin spot ETFs listed in the U.S., with market depth declining by about 30% from the year's peak, and there is a noticeable lack of willingness in the derivatives market to bet on a rebound.

Unlike previous bear markets, this round of pullback was not triggered by exchange closures, regulatory crackdowns, or systemic risk events. The previous three annual declines occurred during the Mt. Gox collapse (2014), the ICO bubble burst (2018), and the industry crisis triggered by the FTX incident (2022). Analysts point out that Bitcoin has shown signs of "decoupling" from U.S. stocks during this downturn. The S&P 500 index has repeatedly hit new highs this year, with an annual increase of about 16%, particularly strong performance in tech stocks, while Bitcoin has remained under pressure.

Apollo Crypto stated that despite numerous positive factors, the price lacks sustained follow-through, reflecting a clear weakening of market sentiment. Overall, this round of Bitcoin adjustment appears more like a reallocation of funds and a retreat in risk appetite against a high backdrop, rather than a panic sell-off triggered by a single event.