K33: The selling pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders is nearing saturation, and the distribution cycle may be coming to an end

The research and brokerage firm K33 stated in a report released yesterday that the selling pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders is approaching a saturation phase, and on-chain selling pressure is expected to gradually ease.

K33's research director Vetle Lunde pointed out that since 2024, the supply of Bitcoin held for more than two years has been continuously declining, with approximately 1.6 million BTC reactivated and flowing into the market, valued at about $138 billion at current prices, reflecting ongoing on-chain sales by early holders. Lunde believes that this scale has clearly exceeded what can be explained by technical migration or structural adjustments, indicating substantial distribution behavior.

The report states that 2024 and 2025 will become the second and third highest years for the re-circulation of long-term supply in Bitcoin's history, second only to 2017. Unlike the distribution cycle back then driven by ICOs, altcoin trading, and incentive mechanisms, this round of selling is more about long-term holders directly realizing deep liquidity gains in response to the demand from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs and corporate financial needs.

Looking ahead, K33 expects the selling pressure to gradually diminish. Lunde noted that about 20% of the Bitcoin supply has been reactivated over the past two years, and on-chain selling pressure is expected to approach saturation. The supply of Bitcoin held for more than two years may end the current downward trend by 2026 and exceed the current level of approximately 12.16 million BTC. Additionally, K33 pointed out the potential asset allocation rebalancing effect that may occur at the end of the quarter and the beginning of the new quarter. Given that Bitcoin has significantly underperformed other assets in the fourth quarter, funds with fixed allocation ratios may be reallocated at the end of the year and early next year, potentially bringing phased capital inflows to the market.