Analyst: The current BTC concentration is 11%, and the probability of significant price fluctuations in the short term is low

On-chain data analyst Murphy stated, "The concentration of BTC chips is an effective observation for a potential 'volatility' warning indicator. When the concentration of chips rises above 13% within a 5% range of the current spot price, it enters the alert zone, and above 15% is considered a high-risk zone; the more concentrated the chips, the greater the probability and magnitude of the resulting volatility.

A high concentration of chips only warns of volatility, not direction. Currently, the concentration of BTC chips is at 11%, which is on the higher side of medium, and has not yet entered the alert zone above 13%. Therefore, the probability of triggering significant volatility at this time is not high, at least from the perspective of chip structure, it does not meet the conditions for forming a 'chain reaction.'

Next, the market will also focus on the CPI data to be released on the evening of the 18th at 21:30, as well as the interest rate decision from the Bank of Japan on the 19th. My personal judgment is that as long as it is not significantly beyond expectations, the impact on the market should remain within the range of 'slight fluctuations,' and will not be as drastic as on August 5th of last year (with a chip concentration of 15% before August 5, 2024)."