Report: The Forecast Market Has Become a Leading Indicator of Key Economic Data

According to a report by DLnews, crypto market maker Keyrock's latest report indicates that prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi have become leading indicators of key economic data, with traders incorporating them into models to gain an edge.

Since the beginning of 2024, the monthly trading volume of prediction markets has surged from $100 million to $13 billion, a 130-fold increase. Although there are controversies regarding accuracy, research shows that Polymarket has an accuracy rate of 67% and Kalshi 78%, but their ability to reflect collective intelligence has made them increasingly popular among professional traders.