The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in January next year is 24.4%, and the probability of a rate cut in March rises to 44.4%
Dec 16, 2025 22:04:45
According to Jinshi reports, after the non-farm data was released, the CME "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 24.4%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 75.6%. By March next year, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rises to 44.4%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 46.1%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 9.5%.
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