Next week's macro outlook, CPI data is coming, which may further confirm the rationale for the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle

Despite the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cut this week and the release of more dovish signals than anticipated, the real challenges faced in the field of artificial intelligence have led to a complex and divergent trend in the U.S. stock and bond markets. This week, long-term U.S. Treasury yields rose broadly, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by about 5 basis points during the rate cut week. The macro outlook for next week is as follows: On Monday at 22:30, Fed Governor Mester will give a speech; on Monday at 23:30, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak on the economic outlook; on Thursday at 01:30, 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will discuss the economic outlook; on Thursday at 21:30, U.S. November unadjusted CPI year-on-year/core CPI year-on-year, U.S. November seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month/core CPI month-on-month; on Thursday at 21:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending December 13; on Friday at 23:00, U.S. December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value, U.S. December one-year inflation expectations final value.

Next week's U.S. CPI data release will be a key turning point for the dollar's trend. If the CPI data is below expectations (the latest figure is currently 3%, still above the Fed's 2% target), it will further confirm the rationale for the Fed's rate cut cycle, and the dollar may face further downward pressure; conversely, it could reverse this trend.