They knew in advance the TGA Game of the Year and made over ten thousand dollars

Author: Liu Kaiwen

Today, the highly anticipated TGA (The Game Awards) ceremony in the gaming world has finally come to a close.

Let's rewind to three hours before the awards ended. At this moment, the "Best Independent Game" was just awarded to the popular title "Light and Shadow: Expedition Team 33," but this left many fans worried: historically, no game has ever won both the "Best Independent Game" and the "Game of the Year (GOTY)" awards at TGA.

As a GOTY contender, "Light and Shadow" now had the responsibility of breaking the curse that has existed since TGA's inception, creating an unprecedented moment in the gaming industry.

Just when everyone was anxious, a mysterious individual registered an account on a seemingly unrelated "prediction market" and deposited ten thousand dollars. He found the topic "Will Light and Shadow win the 2025 GOTY?" on the platform and bet the entire ten thousand dollars he just deposited on "Yes."

At this time, the price for "Yes," which represents the probability of the event, was $0.98 per share, meaning that even if "Light and Shadow" indeed made history by winning both awards, his bet of ten thousand dollars would only yield a profit of less than two hundred dollars. However, if "Light and Shadow" failed to break the TGA curse, the probability of this topic would instantly drop to 0, meaning his recently deposited ten thousand dollars would be wiped out.

What kind of passionate fan of "Light and Shadow" would take such reckless risks? How does the prediction market attract gamers from around the world to speculate on award favorites in advance?

The "Preordained" Script

As early as October 30, a month and a half before the awards ceremony, the prediction market Polymarket launched the topic "2025 Game of the Year." The probability of "Light and Shadow" winning was firmly pegged above 80% from the start, while the probabilities for other highly anticipated AAA titles were suppressed below 10%. This one-sided situation, which usually only occurs in events where the outcome is no longer in doubt, raised suspicions among many traders: this was not just optimism; it was certainty.

Among these traders who held a "certainty" attitude, several had extremely uniform trading styles. DieselDiesel, trumpnogo, and kasae all placed bets on "Light and Shadow winning the TGA 2025 GOTY" at around 85% probability, with amounts wagered exceeding their usual stakes by dozens or even hundreds of times. This extreme concentration and abnormal betting behavior put them at great risk: if "Light and Shadow" ultimately did not win, they would not only have to give back all their past profits but also incur substantial losses.

As time went on and the probability of "Light and Shadow" winning increased, they did not sell any of their holdings for profit. Even three hours before the award announcement, after the "Best Independent Game" award had been announced, they remained unmoved, seemingly foreseeing the future, and, along with the mysterious individual mentioned at the beginning, risked their entire account balance for a final small profit.

The Historic Award Moment and the Cashing In of Insider Knowledge

Amidst doubts and unease, TGA, as if following the script laid out by these traders over a month ago, dispelled the final suspense: the much-anticipated "Light and Shadow," having already won the "Best Independent Game" award, broke the historical curse and won the Game of the Year award.

While players on one side cheered, the prediction market revealed the final mystery: the three traders who had determined a month ago that "Light and Shadow" would win solidified their roles as "prophets," achieving substantial profits:

DieselDiesel made a profit of $5,357 from this event, accounting for 176% of all his other trading profits;

trumpnogo made a profit of $2,958 from this event, accounting for 62% of all his other trading profits;

kasae made a profit of $1,658 from this event, accounting for 220% of all his other trading profits.

The mysterious individual we mentioned at the beginning (bobo9997) won "up to" $200 from his ten thousand dollar bet, firmly believing that "Light and Shadow would make history."

"Even Prophets Need to Eat"

The most noteworthy commonality among these four traders is that when many players questioned whether "Light and Shadow" could break the historical curse, they were willing to risk nearly $100,000 in positions to "bet" that this historic moment would occur, yet the total profit from this "gambling" was less than two thousand dollars.

Now, let's assume these "prophets" are TGA vote auditing staff. For an insider with an annual income of $100,000, if they wanted to monetize the information in a traditional way, they would need to sell the insider knowledge to media and other platforms, which would entail various potential fines, termination, or even imprisonment.

However, with the emergence of prediction markets, they can anonymously exchange information asymmetry for real cash equivalent to one to three months of disposable income.

When we view them as insiders who already know the results, everything becomes clear: with 100% confirmation that "Light and Shadow" would be GOTY, their "bet" at the final moment was merely a way to exchange an hour of waiting time before the awards for what seemed like a high-risk but was actually a certain two thousand dollar profit.

This seemingly high-risk but actually certain money-making "bet" would have been nearly impossible to encounter before the emergence of platforms like prediction markets.

However, with the popularity of Polymarket, how many people can resist the temptation to convert information into real cash anonymously?