Matrixport: Bitcoin shows phased adjustment characteristics during the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see phase and market pressure

Matrixport stated in the latest issue of the "Matrix on Target Weekly Report" that the results of the latest FOMC meeting were largely in line with market expectations, but the dot plot did not provide clear guidance on the future policy path, which increased market uncertainty regarding future pace. However, from the performance of interest rates and asset prices, these uncertainties are still relatively limited in their reflection in current prices.

Powell's cautious stance, combined with early signs of a weakening labor market, indicates that the current macro environment is different from the beginning of the year. The report pointed out that, against this backdrop, Bitcoin has for the first time fallen below a key long-term trend line in this bull market, and its price movement pattern bears similarities to the market rhythms observed before and after previous midterm elections.

Despite recent discussions about the "Federal Reserve restarting balance sheet expansion" gaining traction, overall liquidity in the cryptocurrency market remains tight, retail trading activity has not yet shown a significant rebound, and political factors may still not be fully priced into market sentiment and trading behavior.

Matrixport believes that under the interplay of multiple factors, the market is transitioning from a single trend to a more complex structure. In this phase, the importance of position management and risk control has significantly increased. The report maintains its previous judgment that even if the current situation is not defined as a bear market, there is still a high probability that this consolidation phase will continue.