Raoul Pal: The current bull market cycle is expected to peak in 2026, and cryptocurrencies are essentially a macro asset

Former Goldman Sachs executive, author of "Global Macro Investor," and co-founder and CEO of Real Vision, Raoul Pal, stated at the Solana Breakpoint conference:

"The decline in labor force participation means a decrease in the working population. And demographic structure is key to driving debt. Population growth will continue to decline, which means the debt-to-GDP ratio will continue to rise, and that is the problem.

We have to face the global debt issue, and currency devaluation has always been a way to address (or rather postpone) this problem. We are starting to see signs that the Federal Reserve will have to reconsider its balance sheet and begin to think about how to 'monetize' all this debt. It is expected that over the next 12 months, we will need to print about $8 trillion in cash through liquidity injections.

I know many people may think the crypto cycle is over and feel that 'the good times are gone.' But in fact, what drives all of this is cyclical, not from the Bitcoin halving cycle, but driven by the debt maturity cycle.

So, I believe this is not a 4-year cycle, but a 5.4-year cycle. In a 5.4-year cycle, we have now passed the trough of the cycle, and the next step is the rising phase, with the cycle expected to peak at the end of 2026, not 2025. This is a breakthrough understanding for us as global macro investors: understanding that cryptocurrency is actually a macro asset.

Additionally, the altcoin/Bitcoin cross rate is driven by the business cycle, and the business cycle seems to be bottoming out, not peaking."