Analysis: Hedge funds shift to risk aversion before interest rate cuts, on-chain data shows BTC may "rise before falling."

According to the latest research by XWIN Research Japan, institutional investors are actively adjusting their positions.

On-chain data shows that the BTC balances on major exchanges are declining, while the reserves of USDT and USDC are increasing, indicating that institutions are reducing their risk exposure and accumulating stablecoins. The research points out that this pattern is similar to the period from August to October 2025: funding rates soared before the FOMC meeting and dropped sharply after the announcement, while Bitcoin prices peaked and then retreated.

Currently, CME futures open interest is stagnant, and large holders' spot positions remain stable, further confirming that professional funds are preparing for volatility. Analysts advise investors not to blindly chase pre-meeting rebounds but to manage risks in advance, as market volatility around the FOMC typically expands sharply.