Bank of New York Mellon: The Federal Reserve will implement a hawkish rate cut this week, and the dot plot reveals policy divergence

According to Jinshi reports, analysts at Bank of New York Mellon pointed out in a report that the market has fully digested the expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month, but there is an increasing consensus that this will be a hawkish cut, and further monetary easing will depend on whether the economic data released in March and June 2026 shows weakness or if inflation further declines. Analysts also mentioned that the upcoming change in the Federal Reserve chair poses a risk, and the market will assess the policy tendencies of the new leadership. In addition, the FOMC will release the dot plot, and it is expected that there will be significant divergence among committee members regarding the policy direction for 2026, reflecting the dual economic risks.