4E: Bitcoin returns above $93,000, boosted by both the Japanese government bond auction and the Fed chair nominee, enhancing market sentiment

According to 4E observations, Bitcoin surged past $93,000 on Tuesday night, quickly recovering all losses caused by previous macro shocks. This strong rebound was mainly driven by two factors:

First, the Japanese 10-year government bond auction became a key stabilizer for global risk assets. The yield rose to 1.88% before the auction, reaching a 17-year high, attracting large funds such as pension funds. The market generally believes that "a rate hike in December is basically a done deal," boosting the stocks of major banks like MUFG and SMFG. Previously, due to Kazuo Ueda's hints at a rate hike, the Japanese bond market experienced significant volatility, triggering a chain reaction in global risk assets, with Bitcoin once plummeting over 7%.

Second, the market widely bets that Hasset has been "internally confirmed" to become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. Although the growth and inflation outlook for 2026 remains uncertain, the short-term policy inclination towards "dovishness" has boosted both the U.S. stock market and interest rate cut expectations, providing a rebound momentum for BTC.

Grayscale's latest report indicates that the 30% adjustment in Bitcoin since early October is a normal occurrence in a bull market, with the historical average pullback being 30%. Grayscale expects BTC to reach new highs next year, rather than returning to a "four-year cycle" decline.

Musk has once again warned that the U.S. $38.3 trillion debt could trigger severe volatility in Bitcoin. He stated that the U.S. is heading towards a "debt crisis" and emphasized that Bitcoin, based on its energy attributes, "cannot be created through legislation." Musk predicts that AI will drive the growth rate of goods and services output to exceed the growth of money supply within three years, potentially leading to deflation and interest rates returning to zero. He also reiterated Bitcoin's long-term strategic position, noting that while its participation in the crypto market has fallen below the pandemic peak, it continues to receive support.

4E reminds investors: The rapid reversal of macro policy expectations and fluctuations in the bond market remain key variables dominating short-term trends. The strength of BTC's recovery after this round of adjustments still depends on policy signals, liquidity environment, and changes in the behavior of long-term holders. It is advisable to maintain a sense of rhythm and risk boundaries.