Suspected Google insider leaks the release deadline for Gemini 3.0 Flash, multiple accounts simultaneously make precise bets on a narrow window

According to monitoring by PolyBeats, in the prediction market "Will Gemini 3.0 Flash be released before?", the trading patterns of multiple traders show remarkable consistency: they have accurately locked the product's release date within a narrow 16-day window.

This prediction series includes three key deadlines, and the market currently believes that: the probability for the upcoming deadline of November 30, which is less than 3 days away, is only 1%; the likelihood of a release before December 15 is 9%; while the probability of a release before December 31 is as high as 91%. This trend reflects the market's confidence in the release of Gemini 3.0 Flash, but suggests that Google needs more time for final testing and adjustments.

Among the traders in this market, several accounts exhibit highly unified positions, indicating precise knowledge of internal timing. One user, gladitya, has placed a total bet of $14,000 with high certainty by simultaneously holding "No" shares for November 30 and December 15, as well as "Yes" shares for December 31, effectively locking the release date between December 16 and December 31. This position has already realized over 40% unrealized gains. Notably, this account's only previous historical trade was a successful bet on the release of another version of Gemini, earning nearly $10,000.

Two other traders have positions that closely align with this: NCW has heavily bet $17,810 on "No" for December 15 and "Yes" for December 31, without any other trading history. ambuscade, in addition to holding over $50,000 in this market, has an average position of less than $50 in their last five historical trades. This pattern of multiple accounts placing large amounts of money, precisely excluding earlier dates, and concentrating bets on specific later windows strongly aligns with characteristics of insider information.