Notice: At 9:30 PM tonight, the United States will release the retail sales data for September, which may strengthen the expectations for a rate cut in December

On Tuesday night at 9:30 PM Beijing time, the U.S. Census Bureau will release the U.S. retail sales data, known for its "terrifying data" reputation, which has been delayed for more than a month due to the government shutdown. It is expected to show a slight slowdown in consumer spending in September. This may indicate that American households have reached their spending limits after months of inflationary pressures. Additionally, the risk of cooling consumer spending remains as many employers have scaled back hiring.

According to the median forecast from a Bloomberg survey, economists expect retail sales in September to grow by 0.4%, following a 0.6% increase in the previous month. Bloomberg economists noted that labor market conditions have improved slightly after hitting a low in the summer. However, the partial federal government shutdown in October has brought new shocks to hiring and consumer spending. "Overall, we believe the Federal Reserve will be able to cut rates in December, and it is likely that it should do so to sustain the fragile recovery that began in the summer."