TD Cowen: The Bitcoin premium of Strategy is approaching the "crypto winter" low point, but still maintains a buy rating

According to The Block, TD Cowen's latest report indicates that the Bitcoin premium of Michael Saylor's Strategy continues to decline, currently "approaching the lows of the 'crypto winter' of 2021-2022." The report includes two updated premium charts (one tracing back to 2020 and covering nearly 12 months), showing that Strategy did not issue new shares or purchase new Bitcoin through its market issuance (ATM) plan yesterday, prompting the market to re-evaluate its current premium levels.

The charts show that the current premium has significantly retreated from last year's peak and is gradually compressing to levels seen at the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022. Nevertheless, TD Cowen maintains a bullish stance on MSTR, keeping a buy rating and a target price of $535 (approximately 200% higher than Strategy's current stock price of about $180), believing that "achieving this target within a year is reasonably expected." The report states: "We have not adjusted our base Bitcoin price expectations, anticipating that Strategy will hold 815,000 Bitcoins by the end of fiscal year 2027, which estimates that by December 2027, its holdings will be worth over $185 billion, equating to an intrinsic value of about $540 per share. The $535 target price reflects zero premium to the intrinsic value per share as of December 2027." The report also emphasizes that the risk of Strategy being removed from the MSCI index has put pressure on its stock price, with expectations that the company will be removed from the index and will continue to face pressure under MSCI's shadow.