Bitcoin has seen a large-scale contrarian accumulation in history, with long-term holders increasing their holdings by 186,000 BTC in a single month

According to on-chain data from CryptoQuant, an abnormal signal has been observed. Since October 6, the BTC demand from long-term "diamond hands" holders has surged from 159,000 to 345,000, marking the largest accumulation scale in recent cycles. However, contrary to historical patterns, the price has not only failed to rise but has instead fallen sharply.

In the past, when long-term holders significantly absorbed supply, it typically triggered a supply squeeze and pushed prices to form temporary peaks. However, this round of the market presents a contradiction: smart money is accumulating chips in extreme panic, while the market is trapped in billions of dollars of unrealized losses. Analysts point out that this abnormal accumulation during a downtrend usually indicates two possible outcomes:

Scenario 1: After deep absorption of supply, a strong rebound occurs when retail investors exit, allowing institutions to distribute chips to new incoming funds.

Scenario 2: Prices further test the lows, completely washing out market buying pressure, forcing even strong buyers to reassess, laying the groundwork for a more sustained trend.