CICC: The current gold bull market may not be over yet, and a breakthrough of 5000 USD next year cannot be ruled out

CICC released its 2026 outlook, stating that from a historical comparison perspective, this round of the gold bull market may not yet be over. The increase and duration of this gold bull market are still lower than the two major upward cycles in the 1970s and 2000s. Considering the current macroeconomic uncertainty, the long-term adjustment of global reserve structures, and the potential downturn of the dollar cycle, we believe the gold bull market has not reached its end. Unless the Federal Reserve completely ends its easing cycle or the U.S. economy re-enters a strong recovery phase of "declining inflation + rising growth," the mid-term upward logic for gold will remain.

If the current trend continues, there is a possibility that gold prices could break through $5,000 per ounce next year. Although the bull market logic is clear, gold is indeed one of the currently overvalued major asset classes, which may increase asset volatility. We recommend maintaining an overweight position in gold but reducing speculative trading operations, adopting a strategy of increasing allocation on dips and dollar-cost averaging, and focusing more on the long-term asset allocation value of gold. (Jin Shi)