Analysis: The decline of Bitcoin is triggered by factors such as the tightening of liquidity in the United States and the continuous selling pressure from American investors

CryptoQuant's XWIN Research released an analysis stating that Bitcoin's recent drop below $100,000 is not merely a simple market fluctuation, but rather the result of multiple structural pressures centered in the United States occurring simultaneously. On-chain data strongly indicates that American investors are the dominant force behind the current downward trend.

First, the Coinbase premium index has been significantly negative for several weeks, indicating that the selling pressure from American investors far exceeds the buying interest from Asia or Europe. This aligns with the recent recurring trend: Bitcoin rebounds during Asian hours but experiences a noticeable reversal during U.S. trading hours. Second, long-term holders (LTH) across all age groups are selling in unison. Analysts, including Will Clemente, point out that the selling pressure is not coming from a specific group but is appearing simultaneously among holders of 6 months, 18 months, 3 years, and even 7 years. This situation is extremely rare and strongly suggests that American investors are engaging in year-end tax optimization.

Fidelity also confirmed that many American LTH are locking in profits to complete their annual position settlements. Third, the U.S. government shutdown has led to a severe tightening of liquidity. With federal spending forced to pause, the government has unusually recorded a budget surplus, pulling billions of dollars in liquidity out of the system. Coupled with the cooling expectations for a rate cut in December, the overall risk appetite in the U.S. has clearly declined. The U.S. stock market has seen broad declines, with crypto-related stocks dropping by 10-20%, and Bitcoin has also experienced a similar liquidity-driven pullback.

In summary, these factors create a clear narrative: the current adjustment is primarily driven by the U.S. Structural selling by long-term holders, liquidity decline due to fiscal tightening, and the persistent weakness during U.S. hours collectively amplify market volatility. As liquidity gradually recovers in the coming weeks, market conditions may stabilize, but short-term pressures will still be heavily influenced by dynamics in the U.S. market.