Placeholder Partner: The characteristics of the bull market have emerged, planning to re-enter when BTC falls back to $75,000 or lower

Former Ark Invest crypto head and current Placeholder VC partner Chris Burniske recently stated that although this crypto cycle is disappointing, core assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) remain within historical high ranges. Investors should be wary of short-term pullback risks while maintaining long-term allocations.

Burniske pointed out that the crash on October 11 has caused a lasting impact on the market, making it difficult to quickly establish sustained buying pressure. The monthly charts for BTC and ETH show cracks but still remain in the "top range." Additionally, the decline in MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock price and frequent warning signals from the gold and credit markets suggest that a broader asset adjustment is imminent. "This bull market is different, and the next bear market will be different as well," Burniske wrote. He has adjusted his positions accordingly and plans to re-enter when BTC falls to $75,000 or lower, but emphasized that this is "definitely not an all-in or all-out" gradual strategy.

In his portfolio disclosure, Burniske revealed that approximately 39% of his personal holdings are in "free cash" (money market funds), while 61% are in long-term capital, including non-crypto assets. This reflects his belief in the nature of capitalism: "Capitalism aims to grow capital, so maintaining allocations is always the wisest choice." He warned that private market valuations are nearing the cycle's peak, and if BTC continues to decline, no crypto asset will be able to stand alone.

At the same time, he cited historical lessons, such as gold soaring before the crashes in 2000 and 2008, reminding investors to avoid blindly chasing "escape pods" when all assets are overvalued. Looking ahead, Burniske is cautiously optimistic about a liquidity resurgence, believing it will arrive late and be less stimulative than in 2021, potentially leading to a shift towards "four-year fundamentalism." He observed that characteristics of a bull market peak are already evident: positive news (such as developments related to Robinhood) no longer triggers rebounds, while a bear market bottom requires bad news to lose its effect. He calls for investors to be patient and resilient, especially in the AI and crypto sectors.