The oral arguments in the Trump tariff case are about to begin, with a reported 61% chance of losing

The probability of Trump losing the tariff case at the Supreme Court on Polymarket is currently reported at 61%. Bettors expect that the Supreme Court will likely dismiss Trump's argument that "comprehensive global tariffs can be implemented without congressional approval." Hours later, this oral debate over the scope of presidential emergency economic powers is about to begin. (Oral arguments at the U.S. Supreme Court typically start at 10 AM ET, which is 11 PM Beijing time today.)

BlockBeats previously reported that the U.S. Supreme Court will hold oral arguments today on whether Trump can impose tariffs under the IEEPA. The core issue of the case is whether the president can impose broad tariffs on imported goods from around the world based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The implications of the case extend far beyond trade policy itself; the Supreme Court's ruling will determine whether the president can bypass Congress by invoking emergency powers, thereby making this practice a tool of everyday governance and profoundly affecting the constitutional separation of powers and the limits of presidential authority.