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Tonight, ADP becomes a rare indicator under the U.S. government shutdown, and this week's non-farm payroll is still expected to be absent

Nov 05, 2025 15:47:45

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The latest ADP data on private sector employment growth in the United States will be released at 21:15 Beijing time on Wednesday. Due to the U.S. government shutdown, investors will be unable to obtain non-farm data for the second consecutive month, but scattered signs indicate that the economy is still maintaining growth, and employment is expected to improve. The market expects that this ADP data, often referred to as "little non-farm," will show that U.S. private enterprises added 28,000 jobs in October. This will represent a significant reversal from the previous month. Last month, the ADP report indicated that businesses reduced jobs by 32,000, primarily due to a sharp decline in the service sector.

Economists warn that, due to the lack of official data, private sector survey data may be overstated, potentially leading to unusual volatility. It will take some time to verify or refute the aforementioned signals in the labor market before the BLS releases official data. The October non-farm employment report was originally scheduled for release this Friday, but due to the federal government experiencing a record-length shutdown, it is currently unclear when the data will be published.

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