CryptoQuant CEO: The Bitcoin cycle pattern may have ended, and the current price weakness is due to insufficient demand

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju shared a series of on-chain data about Bitcoin and made the following key analytical points:

1. The unrealized profits of whales are not extremely high. This may indicate one of two situations: "The hype hasn't arrived yet— we are far from euphoric sentiment." or "This time is different— the market is too large to allow for excessively high profit margins."

2. Bitcoin's hash rate continues to hit new highs (approximately 5.96 million ASIC miners online). Publicly listed mining companies are expanding rather than downsizing, which is a clear long-term bullish signal.

3. Current demand is primarily driven by ETFs and MicroStrategy, but recent buying from these two channels has slowed down. If these two channels resume growth, market momentum may reappear.

4. Over the past six months, short-term whales (mainly ETFs) are close to breakeven. Long-term whales have made about 53% profit. Historically, the market has shown clear four-year cyclical fluctuations, with accumulation and distribution occurring between retail investors and whale investors. It is now more difficult to predict where new liquidity will come from and at what scale, making it less likely for Bitcoin to follow the same cyclical pattern again.

5. The average cost of Bitcoin wallets is $55,900, which means holders are averaging a profit of about 93%. Realized market capitalization continues to rise (up $8 billion this week), indicating that on-chain capital inflow remains strong. The price increase is not due to selling pressure, but rather because of weak demand.