QCP: The foundation for a new round of Bitcoin rebound seems to have been established

ChainCatcher news, QCP released a daily outlook stating: After a volatile weekend, risk assets have stabilized: stocks are about 1.5% away from recent highs, and Bitcoin is about 10% away from its peak. This rebound is partly driven by a resurgence in market expectations for interest rate cuts, with swap contracts currently anticipating a cumulative cut of about 125 basis points by the end of 2026. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated plans for another 0.25% cut this month, providing short-term support for risk sentiment, even as the government shutdown delays the release of key labor data.

Gold continues to be in the spotlight, soaring to a historic high of $4,022 per ounce (up 52% year-to-date), driven by strong central bank reserve accumulation and declining real yields. The market narrative is shifting from interest rate sensitivity to liquidity-driven dynamics.

Central bank purchases, de-dollarization capital flows, and institutional portfolio hedging have become the main forces driving gold prices higher, making its value far exceed traditional inflation-hedging functions. Despite the weekend's volatility, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has exceeded 0.85, indicating a high synchronization of capital flows between traditional and digital store-of-value instruments.

Gold continues to set new highs, and Bitcoin briefly reached a new high before the weekend. With institutional treasuries continuing to increase their positions and ETF inflows remaining strong (yesterday, BTC ETF saw inflows of $102.7 million, and ETH ETF saw inflows of $236.2 million), the foundation for a new round of rebound seems to have been established.