4E: Institutions continue to increase their holdings, and the Bitcoin market may enter a new cycle

ChainCatcher news reports that, according to 4E observations, MARA Holdings bought another 400 BTC through FalconX two hours ago, with a transaction amount of approximately 46.31 million USD. The total holdings now amount to 52,850 BTC, with a total value of about 6.12 billion USD at current prices. Meanwhile, Strategy founder Michael Saylor has once again released Bitcoin Tracker information, and the market expects his company to disclose new round of increased holdings data this week.

On the macro level, the risk of a U.S. government shutdown remains as high as 96%, but the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October (probability 98.3%). Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and several board members will be making intensive speeches this week, while the delayed release of economic data is exacerbating market expectations for policy easing.

In terms of precious metals, the spot gold price briefly rose to 4,060 USD/ounce, setting a new historical high. Meanwhile, Glassnode data shows that the funding rate in the crypto market has dropped to its lowest level since the 2022 bear market, indicating that leverage has been systematically cleared and market volatility has significantly decreased.

Market views are diverging: trader Alex Becker pointed out that this drop may mark the early stage of a bull market; Jan3 founder Samson Mow also believes that Bitcoin is about to enter a new upward cycle.

Additionally, Forbes reports that U.S. President Trump may be one of the largest individual Bitcoin investors in the U.S., indirectly holding about 870 million USD in BTC through his holding company TMTG.

4E reminds investors: the signals of deleveraging and institutional accumulation are strengthening, and Bitcoin may be at the starting point of a new cycle after a mid-term adjustment, with macro and political events likely to be key catalysts for the future market.