Real Vision founder: Bitcoin will experience a "five-year cycle" this round, likely peaking in Q2 next year

ChainCatcher message, Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal stated in the latest podcast released yesterday that Bitcoin is now mirroring the ISM (Institute for Supply Management Index, also known as the "business cycle"). The core idea is: Bitcoin is now following ISM, and interest rates are also keeping the same rhythm. From 2021 to 2022, the Treasury extended the weighted average maturity of its debt from 4 years to 5 years. As a result, the entire cycle has been artificially extended by one year—turning the original "four-year cycle" into a "five-year cycle." The model shows that ISM will peak in 2026; liquidity is likely to peak earlier because the second derivative of ISM and liquidity (the rate of change) will turn first.

"Our guess is: the actual peak will occur in 2026, most likely in Q2."