Analyst: Bitcoin is no longer reliant on the halving cycle, and those predicting a price peak in Q4 may misunderstand the probabilities

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, crypto analyst PlanC posted on the X platform stating that anyone who thinks Bitcoin will peak in the fourth quarter of this year does not understand statistics or probability. From a statistical and probability perspective, this is akin to flipping a coin and getting tails three times in a row, then betting all your money that the fourth flip will definitely be tails. However, relying on the previous three halving cycles does not provide enough statistically significant data.

Today, with the rise of Bitcoin funding companies and a large influx of capital into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, the halving cycle is no longer relevant to Bitcoin. Aside from psychological self-fulfilling prophecies, there are no fundamental reasons to explain why Bitcoin would peak in the fourth quarter of 2025.