4E: Weak non-farm payrolls or locked interest rate cuts, whales continue to increase their positions in ETH

ChainCatcher news, according to 4E observations, market focus is on the upcoming U.S. employment data. Economists expect only 75,000 non-farm jobs added in August, with the unemployment rate possibly rising to 4.3%, the highest since 2021. If the data falls short of expectations, the Federal Reserve may be forced to accelerate easing measures at the September meeting, potentially even a one-time rate cut of 50 basis points. Santander's chief economist Stanley bluntly stated, "The labor market is essentially frozen, and companies are pausing hiring to observe." Against this backdrop, the market generally expects at least a 25 basis point rate cut in September.

On-chain dynamics, Bitmine received 48,225 ETH (approximately $208 million) from BitGo, with new wallets 0xAF8 and 0xC77 withdrawing 12,692 and 18,404 ETH respectively, totaling over $300 million in inflows. Institutional accumulation may support ETH's mid-term trend.

In terms of regulation, the U.S. SEC announced a new agenda for cryptocurrency regulations, proposing to relax some exemption clauses and simplify disclosure processes, while allowing certain crypto assets to be listed on registered exchanges and ATS, aiming to open a channel for digital assets to be incorporated into the existing system.

On the macro front, Trump signed an executive order to officially implement the U.S.-Japan trade agreement, imposing a 15% baseline tariff on most Japanese imports; initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 237,000, exceeding expectations and indicating increased employment pressure.

Additionally, Bitwise listed five crypto ETPs on Switzerland's SIX, covering BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and a multi-asset index, bringing the total number of products in the region to 10, further promoting institutional adoption.

4E reminds investors: Short-term market sentiment is dominated by non-farm payrolls and rate cut expectations, with macro volatility potentially amplifying price fluctuations; supported by capital inflows and clearer regulations, the mid-to-long-term narrative for mainstream assets like ETH remains resilient.