Analyst Murphy: BTC technical support failure leads to losses approaching bear bottom

Analyst Murphy stated that the sentiment in the cryptocurrency market has returned to "extreme fear." On November 12, the realized losses of long-term and short-term holders moving to trading platforms reached recent highs, with the overall scale approaching the bear market bottom period of June to July this year.

Murphy mentioned that the market has recently faced multiple extreme bearish factors, including the Binance black swan event, concerns over AI infrastructure restrictions triggered by the Democratic Party's midterm election victory, CPI exceeding expectations, Nvidia's sharp decline due to scandals, and MSTR being removed from the MSCI index. The severity of these events has surpassed historical levels, except for March 12, 2020. He acknowledged underestimating the impact of collective panic and the short-selling forces behind it, stating that under the dominance of irrational behavior, all technical supports have failed.

Murphy also revealed that in his personal holdings, ETH is trapped at $2260, MSTRB is trapped at $136, and his heavily invested BTC has seen a significant reduction in unrealized gains, but he has chosen to maintain his positions. He still believes that the nine months from February to November this year are not a "bear market continuation," but rather a transitional period after emerging from the bear bottom structure, and stated that once signs of improved sentiment and indicator resonance appear, he will only buy on dips.