CoreWeave surged 25%, igniting the new cloud sector, and the next test for AI computing power trading is NVIDIA's financial report

CoreWeave released its third-quarter financial report on Tuesday, with revenue and losses both exceeding expectations, and the full-year guidance also surpassing the upper limit of market expectations. This news boosted the "NeoCloud" sector, which had been under pressure due to concerns about AI investment returns.

Driven by a nearly 25% single-day surge in CoreWeave's stock price, the NeoCloud sector saw intraday gains of over 12%, and the Nasdaq also regained ground lost after the midterm elections. The market's optimistic sentiment was further reinforced by two pieces of news: Anthropic is reportedly discussing an IPO valuation of over $1.5 trillion, alleviating previous concerns about a significant markdown in the company's valuation; additionally, OpenAI's quarterly revenue was strong, reaching $10 billion for the first time.

For Anthropic, which is set to enter the capital market next week, this financial report comes at a crucial time—CoreWeave is an important computing power supplier for Anthropic, and the fates of the two companies are somewhat intertwined. Meanwhile, Nvidia's financial report next week will serve as another litmus test, as investors will look for more reasons to determine whether the AI infrastructure boom can continue.

However, the foundation of this rebound remains shaky: on one hand, funds are shifting from hyperscale cloud providers to "shovel sellers" and computing power leasing companies; on the other hand, CoreWeave's future financing gap, debt costs, and the expansion of computing power supply are still core variables that will determine whether this round of AI infrastructure transactions can go far.

CoreWeave Drives Collective Rebound in NeoCloud Sector

CoreWeave's third-quarter revenue was $3.66 billion, exceeding analyst expectations; the loss per share was $1.27, which was less than the level previously feared by the market. More attention was drawn to the full-year guidance: the company expects full-year revenue in 2026 to be between $13 billion and $13.3 billion, which is about 3.4% higher than the upper limit of market consensus expectations.

CoreWeave CEO Michael Intrator revealed a noteworthy detail during the conference call with analysts: more than half of the new customers this year come from outside the AI sector. This data somewhat addresses market concerns about the excessive concentration of demand for AI computing power and the potential cliff in demand once the AI investment boom recedes. Intrator's statement suggests that the demand for high-performance computing power is penetrating into a broader range of industries, rather than solely relying on purchases from AI laboratories.

Prior to this, CoreWeave's stock price had fallen by 39% year-to-date, making it one of the worst-performing stocks in the AI computing power sector. Deutsche Bank analyst Brad Zelnick stated after the earnings report that he appreciated the "reassuring details" provided by the company, which reflects the overall sentiment of the market.

After the earnings report was released, CoreWeave's stock price surged approximately 25% in a single day, becoming the core target driving the rebound in the NeoCloud sector.

Market data shows that NeoCloud concept stocks rose over 12% on that day, while Goldman Sachs' broad AI stock basket increased by about 5%, significantly outperforming non-AI stocks. The computing power industry chain, which had been dragged down by concerns over AI capital expenditure returns, welcomed a rapid valuation recovery.

The Nasdaq also regained ground lost after the midterm elections.

However, from the perspective of market trading structure, the choice of funds also reflects that investors have not completely eliminated their doubts. AI capital expenditure "receivers" such as computing power leasing companies and semiconductor firms performed stronger; hyperscale cloud providers like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, which bear substantial data center investments, lagged behind. In other words, the market is currently more willing to bet on the direct beneficiaries of the AI construction cycle rather than continue to pay for the "payers" that bear massive capital expenditures.

CoreWeave and Anthropic: Intertwined Fates

CoreWeave's financial report has direct significance for Anthropic.

Anthropic is a customer of CoreWeave, using computing power from CoreWeave and other NeoCloud service providers to support its Claude series products, while also having contracts with hyperscale cloud providers like Google. The two companies have never publicly disclosed the terms of their contracts, but Intrator described the collaboration with Anthropic in April as a "multi-billion dollar contract."

According to Bloomberg, Anthropic plans to complete its IPO next week. As the first cutting-edge AI lab in the U.S. seeking to go public, Anthropic lacks traditional businesses such as search engines, social media, or cloud services as a "moat," and its valuation will entirely depend on the market's judgment of AI prospects. CoreWeave's strong performance theoretically helps Anthropic gain higher valuation recognition during its roadshow.

Recent market news has further heightened attention on this IPO: reports indicate that Anthropic's underwriters are assessing the possibility of an IPO valuation of $1.5 trillion or higher. If this valuation expectation is maintained, Anthropic will not only serve as a sample for testing the commercialization capabilities of cutting-edge large model companies but will also become a direct benchmark for what premium the market is willing to pay for the long-term growth story of AI. Previously, there were reports that Anthropic's valuation might be significantly discounted, potentially falling below $1.5 trillion.

Meanwhile, the news that OpenAI's quarterly revenue reached $10 billion for the first time also provides new support for demand at the AI application layer. For investors, this means the market is attempting to find a closed loop that can mutually validate "model revenue growth—computing power procurement expansion—chip and data center investment returns"; however, whether this closed loop is sufficient to support high valuations still requires validation from more company earnings reports and order data.

For Anthropic, the positive signals released by CoreWeave's financial report indicate that its upstream computing power suppliers can still secure strong orders, raise revenue guidance, and maintain financing capabilities. However, this also highlights the shared risks between the two parties—the sustainability of the large model companies' demand for external computing power and whether computing power suppliers can maintain stable delivery under high capital expenditure and high debt models will jointly impact the valuation foundation of this industry chain. Notably, Anthropic also relies on several other NeoCloud service providers with uncertain prospects for computing power supply, including Nscale, which is reportedly considering delaying its own IPO plans.

The Next Test for AI: Nvidia's Financial Report

Next week, Nvidia will release its financial report. If investors can temporarily set aside concerns about CEO Jensen Huang and other related issues, Nvidia's performance may provide the market with more optimistic reasons.

The importance of Nvidia's financial report goes beyond verifying whether GPU demand is strong. The market hopes to confirm three things: whether the procurement intensity of cloud providers and NeoCloud service providers continues, whether the supply and delivery of new products like Blackwell can match demand, and whether the rapid growth of customer capital expenditures can translate into more sustainable revenue and profits.

In this round of rebound, the semiconductor sector has performed strongly, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recording its largest single-day gain in months and recovering most of the losses from the previous week's pullback; Nvidia's stock price also rebounded. However, traders have observed that some active funds and retail investors still engaged in selling before Nvidia's financial report. This indicates that market expectations for the chip leader remain high, and if the financial report fails to provide sufficiently strong guidance, the volatility of AI trades may amplify again.

Bloomberg columnist Dave Lee analyzed that as early as March 2025, when CoreWeave went public, he warned that the company would become "the first true bellwether stock of the AI revolution," and the facts have proven this to be true—CoreWeave's stock price has indeed become the main "vent" for market volatility.

Behind the Rebound: Financing Gaps and Supply Expansion Remain Hard Constraints

However, the foundation of this rebound remains shaky. CoreWeave's future financing gap, debt costs, and the expansion of computing power supply are still core variables that will determine whether this round of AI infrastructure transactions can go far.

CoreWeave's performance alleviated short-term concerns about whether "AI construction will come to a halt due to financing obstacles," but it did not completely answer long-term questions.

The bullish logic is that CoreWeave can establish financing entities around customer contracts to cover construction costs with a high proportion of guaranteed debt; after repaying the debt during the contract period, the company still retains GPU assets and can re-rent the equipment that has been paid off. If computing power remains tight in the long term, this model is expected to allow existing equipment to continue generating cash flow.

Bears, on the other hand, focus on three risks. First is pricing: the revenue level per megawatt mentioned by management still differs from the actual realization level reflected in financial statements. Second is financing: market views suggest that the company may face a funding gap of about $33 billion next year, still needing to rely on new debt or customer prepayments to fill it. Finally, supply: by 2028, the market is expected to see about 55 gigawatts of new computing power capacity released; if supply is released faster than demand growth, the rental and residual value of older generation GPUs may come under pressure.

Therefore, what CoreWeave proved this season is that, while computing power remains tight, the company can secure orders and obtain financing; however, it has yet to demonstrate that supply tightness will persist long enough to cover massive debt and support the residual value of old GPUs. Moving forward, the market will closely monitor the final pricing of its investment-grade secured loans, the scale of customer prepayments, and whether the company's capital expenditures and free cash flow inflection points can materialize as expected.

Macroeconomic Environment Has Not Released Pressure, Regulatory Uncertainty Remains a Hidden Danger

After the U.S. midterm elections, the Democratic Party controls Congress, and Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa advocated for a moratorium on data center construction during her campaign. Intrator wrote to Hinojosa last week, seeking consensus on the "responsible completion" of approved projects and the "lasting standards" for future projects.

During the earnings call, Intrator attempted to stabilize investor sentiment. He stated, "We do not expect to be affected by any significant regulatory changes in the near term. We believe these changes are statements about how to build, rather than whether to build."

Aside from regulation, interest rates may still be another constraint on the valuation of AI infrastructure. During this round of stock market rebound, the market's pricing for future interest rate hikes has increased, with the implied yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury futures approaching 5% again. For new cloud companies that rely on debt financing to build data centers, rising financing costs will directly affect project returns and equity valuations.

More importantly, the volatility in the stock, credit, interest rate, and crude oil markets has not fully subsided. Although some hedging positions established earlier have been partially closed during this rebound, the VIX briefly fell to around 17, but cross-asset volatility remains at relatively high levels. This means that whether the "breathing room" provided by CoreWeave can evolve into a trend repair still depends on whether subsequent earnings reports, the financing market, and the macro interest rate environment can all provide positive answers.

Overall, CoreWeave's earnings report has temporarily restored market confidence in AI computing power demand and financing capability, and has created a more favorable sentiment window for the Anthropic IPO and NVIDIA's earnings report. However, transitioning from "short-term short covering" to "long-term fundamental reassessment" still requires answers to four difficult questions regarding financing, supply, GPU residual value, and interest rates. Next week’s Anthropic and NVIDIA will be two key tests for whether this round of AI rebound can continue.