Analysis: The Democratic Party may regain Congress, and cryptocurrency legislation may shift towards regulatory scrutiny

According to The Block, as the U.S. midterm elections approach, the digital asset industry may face changes in the congressional political landscape. Over the past two years, the Republican-led Congress passed the stablecoin bill GENIUS Act and advanced the broader Clarity Act; the latter passed the House in 2025 but stalled in the Senate due to controversies over stablecoin rewards and ethical issues raised by former President Trump's crypto wealth. Prediction market Kalshi shows that the probability of the Democrats winning the Senate and the House is 64% and 90%, respectively.

The chair of congressional committees holds the power to set the agenda. If the Democrats regain the Senate, Elizabeth Warren will become the chair of the Senate Banking Committee. Ron Hammond, head of policy and advocacy at Wintermute, expects that she will actively use subpoena power and may focus on scrutinizing the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency's approvals of new bank charters for Ripple, Coinbase, and World Liberty Financial, which is supported by the Trump family.

The election situation in Ohio is also under scrutiny, with former Senate Banking Committee chair Sherrod Brown facing pro-crypto Republican Jon Husted. Fairshake PAC has pledged $30 million to support Husted. Hammond stated that if Brown wins, he may become the chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee, which could potentially shelve related crypto legislation. In the House Financial Services Committee, regardless of whether Maxine Waters, Sean Casten, or Bill Foster leads, the Clarity Act is unlikely to advance. Lindsay Fraser, chief policy officer of the Blockchain Association, stated that while congressional control may change, the demand for clear crypto regulations will not.