Analysis: BTC long-term holders maintain their positions during the rebound, and the market has not yet entered an overheating phase

According to Wu, Glassnode and Coinbase Institutional jointly released the Q4 2026 "Charting Crypto" report. The report believes that Bitcoin has entered a preliminary recovery phase from the bottoming stage in Q3, with an overall positive outlook for Q4, but caution is still needed in the short term.

The report shows that the net unrealized profit and loss indicator (NUPL) for Bitcoin has returned to the "Optimistic/Anxious" range, still below the threshold of the "Belief/Denial" stage. The supply of Bitcoin that has not moved for over a year continues to increase, with long-term holders basically maintaining their positions during the rebound, and the return of new participants has driven a recent increase in active supply. As of the end of September, there is a dense cost area for Bitcoin holdings above the price, which includes the resistance area that previously limited the rise in September, while multiple layers of support are distributed below.