Anthropic's valuation expectations are under pressure: revenue growth is slowing, and some investors are turning to $1.5 trillion

Anthropic's revenue in the third quarter continues to grow rapidly, but the growth rate has significantly slowed, prompting some potential IPO investors to reassess the valuation expectations for this AI company. Against the backdrop of pressured AI trading and rising financing costs, market concerns about whether high growth can support high valuations are deepening.

According to The Information, Anthropic disclosed at an investor meeting in San Francisco on Wednesday that its third-quarter revenue reached $16.8 billion, a quarter-over-quarter increase of about 45%, down from over 140% growth in the second quarter.

Some potential investors believe that underwriters should lower the IPO valuation expectations, with valuations possibly below $1.5 trillion, compared to the approximately $2 trillion level previously discussed privately by some investment banks.

As industry competition intensifies, OpenAI is strengthening its enterprise-level AI products and competing with lower prices; new models from companies like Google and Meta, as well as open-source models, are also putting pressure on Anthropic.

The slowdown in Anthropic's growth adds uncertainty to AI trading, which is already facing inflation and rising interest rate pressures. The market is not only focused on the revenue scale of AI companies but is also beginning to examine whether growth expectations can be fulfilled and whether the massive investments in chips and infrastructure can yield corresponding returns.

Revenue Growth Rate Significantly Slows, Growth Expectations Face Testing

Anthropic's third-quarter revenue increased from $11.6 billion in the second quarter to $16.8 billion, continuing to grow significantly from $4.7 billion in the first quarter. However, the drivers behind the company's previous rapid revenue growth are changing.

The second-quarter revenue grew over 140% quarter-over-quarter, primarily driven by a surge in demand for Claude Code; the third-quarter growth rate dropped to about 45%. Although revenue is still expanding rapidly, the slowdown in growth may affect investors' judgments about the company's future growth trajectory.

There are also changes in the revenue structure. Anthropic estimates that revenue related to model distillation accounts for about 5% to 7% of total revenue, and the company expects this portion of revenue to decline in the current quarter, continuing to drag down revenue performance. Model distillation refers to other companies using the outputs of existing AI models to train their own models.

Anthropic has achieved adjusted profitability for two consecutive quarters, and cash flow turned positive in the third quarter. The company disclosed an adjusted operating profit margin of 11% for the year, but this figure does not include significant costs such as stock compensation.

Some Investors Reassess IPO Valuation

The slowdown in revenue growth is putting pressure on Anthropic's IPO valuation expectations.

Some potential investors are disappointed with the latest financial data and believe that underwriters need to lower valuation expectations, with some investors discussing valuation levels that may be below $1.5 trillion, lower than the approximately $2 trillion previously suggested by some investment banks.

This change reflects a re-discussion of valuations by investors and does not mean that Anthropic has officially lowered its IPO pricing. For potential investors, the key question is whether the company can continue to achieve sufficiently fast revenue growth to support the previous high valuation expectations.

Jefferies analyst Jeffrey Favuzza stated that Wall Street may expect Anthropic's annualized revenue run rate to reach at least $80 billion and hopes it will exceed $105 billion by the end of the year. The market's expectations for growth are already very high, so even if revenue continues to grow, failing to meet expectations could trigger valuation pressure.

Huge Infrastructure Investments Intensify Return Pressure

In addition to revenue growth and profit improvement, Anthropic also needs to cope with massive infrastructure investments. Media reports previously indicated that Anthropic plans to invest over $500 billion in chips and infrastructure over the next decade.

Such a scale of investment makes the question of whether revenue growth can continue to translate into cash flow and profits an important part of the valuation discussion. In an environment of rising financing costs, investors are also more concerned about whether AI companies can expand their businesses at reasonable costs, rather than merely pursuing revenue scale.

As Anthropic's financial disclosures attract market attention, AI-related assets are already facing broader pressures. Investors have concerns about the financial condition of AI cloud service provider CoreWeave, and South Korean memory chip stocks have also seen significant declines. Meanwhile, the market is also digesting the risks of hotter-than-expected inflation data and the possibility of sustained high interest rates.

These factors do not mean that AI demand is weakening overall, but they are changing the way the market evaluates AI companies. For companies that require continuous large investments, the relationship between financing costs, revenue growth, and investment returns is under stricter scrutiny.