Tech Veteran: Anthropic IPO will be the peak of the US stock market AI trend, and if conditions allow, will "significantly go long on Chinese AI."

Author: Long Yue, Wall Street Journal

Driven by the AI boom, Anthropic is preparing for an IPO worth up to $100 billion, but a long-time skeptic of AI, a veteran in technology, has issued a warning: the Anthropic IPO may mark the peak of the AI market, potentially triggering a chain reaction of corrections after the lock-up period expires.

Jack Selby, head of venture capital firm Copper Sky and managing partner of the Peter Thiel family office, stated in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Wednesday, "If this most anticipated AI company's IPO is far below the expected valuation, imagine what will happen after the lock-up period expires. A poorly performing Anthropic IPO will undoubtedly be a key driver in a significant correction in the AI market."

Anthropic is currently seeking to raise up to $100 billion through an IPO, private placements, and potential over-allotment options. Initial signs indicate strong market demand, and reports suggest that the issuance size may even expand further. However, Selby is not convinced.

Selby publicly stated more than a year ago that the frenzy surrounding the AI industry might be the largest bubble in private tech investment to date. He has reiterated his concerns, systematically questioning Anthropic's investment value from three dimensions: valuation logic, competitive landscape, and capital structure.

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Lock-Up Period Risk: If the IPO Fails, Corrections May Trigger a Chain Reaction

Selby's concerns about the Anthropic IPO center on the potential selling pressure after the lock-up period expires.

If this most anticipated AI company's IPO ultimately values far below the original expectations, one can imagine the downward pressure on the stock price once the lock-up period ends and more shares can be sold.

Specifically, Selby pointed to SoftBank Group and Oracle as "canaries in the coal mine"—warning signals. He believes Oracle has a greater risk exposure due to its higher debt ratio. For investors who must hold AI positions, he recommends shifting to Google's parent company, Alphabet.

Revenue Structure Concerns: Over 80% is Non-Recurring Income

In addition to market sentiment risks, Selby also raised questions about Anthropic's fundamentals.

He pointed out that over 80% of Anthropic's revenue comes from non-recurring income, making it highly susceptible to technological advancements from competitors. Once competitors narrow the gap to within six or nine months, this revenue structure will face severe tests.

Capital expenditures are also a major concern.

This is an extremely capital-intensive business. Data, energy, data centers, chips—all are expensive inputs, and interest rates are no longer close to zero.

This is a real business, but it is still in the early stages, and thinking of it as a trillion-dollar company seems extremely far-fetched.

Competitive Pressure from China

Selby also pointed to competitive pressure from China, viewing it as another underestimated risk in Anthropic's valuation logic.

He stated that DeepSeek and other Chinese AI models are currently only about six months behind Anthropic, posing a direct threat to Anthropic.

Selby also mentioned that if conditions permit, he would "heavily invest in Chinese AI." He believes that Anthropic cannot claim that all its business must rely on American models, as most AI use cases are closer to basic tool applications, providing space for alternatives from Chinese models.