"After the selection, the United States' new computing power is locked," Musk becomes the "deciding factor in the AI landscape."

The Democratic Party achieved a significant victory in the U.S. midterm elections, and newly elected governors in multiple states immediately imposed strict conditions on data centers, announcing a complete suspension of new construction permits until new regulations are introduced. This policy shift directly triggered a market reaction, with technology stocks such as Nvidia, Tesla, AMD, and Micron experiencing the largest single-day market value evaporation in history, amounting to nearly $4 trillion.

Chamath Palihapitiya, co-host of the well-known blog All-In Podcast and a Silicon Valley investor, revealed in the November 8 episode that the real "nuclear-level" variable is hidden in the computing power supply contract between SpaceX and Anthropic------both parties hold a "90-day mutual exit clause." If the supply of computing power tightens suddenly due to state permit freezes, SpaceX could theoretically terminate the contract and reprice at 2 to 3 times the spot price, fundamentally rewriting the power dynamics of the entire AI industry.

(All-In Podcast screenshot)

Hyperscale cloud providers, holding substantial existing computing power, maintain their "landlord" status, while new cloud services (Neoclouds) and cutting-edge model companies face existential crises due to their heavy reliance on external rentals.

Meanwhile, All-In Podcast co-hosts Jason Calacanis, David Sacks, and David Friedberg warned in the episode that if states continue to set approval barriers, data center projects worth over $50 billion at the gigawatt level will be forced to relocate to Canada, Mexico, Malaysia, or even the Middle East. The U.S. will go from being a "global computing power exporter" to an expensive "token importer," and the strategic impact on technological competitiveness and employment cannot be ignored.

Permit Freeze: Grassroots Public Opinion's Strong Counterattack Against "AI Oligarchs"

After the election results were announced, newly elected Texas Governor Gina Ino Hosa publicly stated that all new data center permits would be suspended until special legislation is enacted. According to discussions among All-In Podcast co-hosts, several newly elected state candidates share a similar stance.

This public sentiment did not arise from nowhere. Chamath cited a widely circulated video on the X platform------the SpaceX team held a presentation in Cochise County, Arizona, for its 6GW data center project, where two SpaceX employees, Riley and Katie, promised that the project would lower local electricity costs, not consume water resources, reduce property taxes by 20%, and provide repayment funds for county bonds. However, the response from the residents was continuous uproar and resistance.

Chamath pointed out that this sentiment is not based on rational judgment of facts but rather a totemic projection of the "economic divide." Community residents are extremely resentful of tech giants enjoying generous tax breaks from local governments while simultaneously driving up local electricity prices and water consumption. David Sacks also stated that the core logic of the residents is: "AI oligarchs are profiting from tax breaks while we are paying higher electricity bills for them."

David Sacks further noted that the political motivation behind the permit freeze is almost rigid: "In the last election, both Democrats and Republicans targeted politicians who approved data centers as their attack objects. Any politically ambitious person has no reason to approve any projects in the next four years." His baseline judgment is that projects already permitted are likely to be completed by 2027, but new projects that have not yet been approved will face significant uncertainty, and by 2028, the entire project pipeline may be essentially closed or significantly shrunk.

"Landlords" and "Tenants": The Life-and-Death Division of Computing Power Landscape

Chamath clearly divides the participants in the current computing power market into two distinctly different camps, stating that their fates under the new circumstances are vastly different.

Hyperscale cloud providers------including Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and SpaceX------own their power plants and hold substantial existing computing power, making them the true "landlords." The tightening of new data center permits has limited impact on them and instead presents important strategic opportunities: by directing incremental computing power to their own products, they can effectively suppress the growth rate of external competitors. As Chamath stated, Google's recent acquisition of Crusoe data centers is a direct manifestation of this logic------"They drove out the tenants and took the entire asset into their own hands."

In contrast, emerging cloud service providers (Neoclouds) and cutting-edge model companies (such as Anthropic and OpenAI) heavily rely on external rented computing power, making them the true "tenant class." Once new supply is locked down by state regulations, spot GPU prices will soar, forcing these companies to either accept much higher bids or gradually fall behind in the fierce competition of model iterations due to insufficient computing power.

It is noteworthy that Anthropic and OpenAI are currently in a rapid model iteration cycle of 60 to 90 days. Once the supply of computing power tightens, this rhythm will be forcibly slowed down, allowing time for models under hyperscale providers like Google Gemini to catch up.

SpaceX's "90-Day Nuclear Button": A Contract Determines the AI Landscape

Among all the variables, Chamath believes the most decisive factor is a little-known contract clause.

According to Chamath, the computing power supply agreement between SpaceX and Anthropic contains a "mutual 90-day exit clause"------both parties can notify each other 90 days in advance to terminate the contract. This clause appears to be a standard commercial arrangement during stable market periods, but in the context of a sudden tightening of computing power supply, it transforms into a "nuclear bomb" that can be detonated at any time.

Chamath's reasoning is as follows:

If state permit freezes lead to a significant reduction in available computing power, the price of spot computing power will skyrocket. At that time, SpaceX will have sufficient economic motivation to terminate the existing contract and reprice at the spot market price------likely 2 to 3 times the original contract price. Anthropic will have no choice but to swallow this price or face a life-and-death crisis due to a lack of computing power.

The chain reaction of this action goes far beyond that. Chamath pointed out that it will force all hyperscale cloud providers to reassess their computing power allocation strategies------whether to continue renting at current prices to external customers or to retain all for their own models. At the same time, it will compel Neoclouds to use all their financing reserves to purchase all available computing power at high prices to avoid being completely squeezed out of the market.

"I believe all the game theory is condensed in this deal. If Elon decides to tear up this contract, the consequences will be a complete reshuffling of the entire AI industry landscape." Chamath summarized.

Computing Power Going Abroad: The Strategic Risk of the U.S. Transitioning from "Exporter" to "Importer"

In the episode, both Jason Calacanis and David Sacks issued warnings about the prospect of data centers relocating abroad.

The core logic is: data centers do not have to be located within the United States. Gigawatt-level super-large data centers worth $50 billion can easily be established in Canada, Mexico, Malaysia, Singapore, and even the Middle East after the war ends. Google has already laid out large data centers in Malaysia. With existing submarine cables, CDN technology, and Starlink networks, the delays and efficiency of cross-border computing power delivery are no longer significant obstacles.

David Sacks clearly pointed out that if the U.S. does not build these data centers, it will pay a high price for importing "tokens." Jason Calacanis added a more direct domestic cost: tens of thousands of data center construction jobs with annual salaries of $300,000 to $400,000 will be lost, and tax revenues that originally belonged to U.S. local governments will flow to places like Malaysia.

"These governors will receive a very heavy lesson in globalization." Jason Calacanis said.

David Friedberg proposed an even more radical policy risk------some extreme left-wing politicians are already discussing not only limiting data center construction but also restricting the development, deployment, and even use of AI models themselves. He believes that the underlying logic is a fundamental game between national power and control over AI technology: whoever possesses the strongest AI capabilities holds absolute advantages over citizens and the market.