Wintermute: Bitcoin has fallen for the third consecutive week, with $80,000 becoming a key support level

Market maker Wintermute stated that Bitcoin fell 2.43% last week, marking its third consecutive week of losses, dropping below the support level of $82,500 and testing the $80,000 mark again. Macroeconomically, rising energy prices and inflation concerns are replacing AI financing issues as the main risks in the market. Bitcoin's recent movements are highly correlated with the Nasdaq and AI-related stocks, and ETF fund flows have begun to fluctuate in both directions.

Wintermute indicated that the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and policy statements will be important short-term catalysts. If it fails to hold above $80,000, the next key support level is $76,000; if it effectively breaks below this, the price may further explore the $70,000 range. In the short term, it needs to regain the $82,000 to $82,500 range to have a chance of restoring an upward trend. If the Federal Reserve leans hawkish, the market may reassess the expectations for a rate hike in December, raising investment yields and increasing downward pressure on Bitcoin; if it leaves room for a December decision, it may create conditions for a rebound.

The institution stated that before the Federal Reserve's decision and the release of the U.S. third-quarter GDP and September PCE, market directional confidence is insufficient, and caution will be maintained. If the Federal Reserve leans dovish but the PCE is higher than expected, the market may sell off tech stocks due to inflation pressure, dragging down Bitcoin. Wintermute emphasized that it is not clearly bearish at the moment, but remains cautious until Bitcoin regains the $82,500 level.