The Bank of Korea warns that a slowdown in AI spending could reduce chip exports by hundreds of billions of dollars

According to a report by Reuters, the Bank of Korea warned that if large American technology companies slow down their capital expenditures in the field of artificial intelligence next year, South Korea's semiconductor exports could decrease by $50 billion to $100 billion compared to previous forecasts. The Bank of Korea simulated this scenario in a written response submitted to National Assembly member Ahn Doo-hyeon, assuming a 10% drop in the unit price of South Korean semiconductor products.

In this scenario, South Korea's GDP growth rate in 2027 would be reduced by about 0.4 percentage points, and the current account surplus would be far below the previously estimated $430 billion. South Korea's chip exports account for about half of the country's total exports. Capital expenditures by Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle are expected to increase from $40 billion last year to $80 billion this year, reaching $110 billion next year.

The Bank of Korea pointed out that there is still significant uncertainty regarding AI demand trends and the cycle of the memory chip industry. If technology giants cut back on investments in AI infrastructure, South Korea's chip exports and overall economic growth could be impacted.