Bonk Guy's trading insights: Last year on "10.11," there was a single-day loss in the eight figures; when the advantage is no longer present, one should exit the market

Trader Bonk Guy posted a review stating that on October 10, 2025, due to systemic failures at several large centralized trading platforms, he experienced the largest single-day loss of his career, amounting to eight figures in dollars within minutes. In the following weeks to months, he lost millions of dollars due to overtrading.

Bonk Guy indicated that a better choice at that time would have been to pause trading for several months or at least half a year and stay away from trading terminals. The eagerness to recover losses and prove trading ability drove him to keep entering the market. He believes that trading ability, experience, and systems are not sufficient to ensure consistent outperformance of the market; results also depend on market conditions, timing, and luck. Advantageous strategies vary in different environments, and sometimes the best trade is to not trade.

He cited a cyclical framework stating that the average crypto bull market lasts about 1,060 days, accounting for approximately 74% of the cycle, while bear markets last about 380 days, accounting for about 26%; if the bull market is defined as when Bitcoin's price is above the 200-day moving average and the upward momentum is strong, the opportunity window may shorten to about 237 days, accounting for about 16% of the cycle. These numbers depend on the definition of the phases. He also mentioned that compared to forcing trades in unfavorable conditions, it is more important to protect capital, maintain judgment, and wait for the next significant opportunity. When lacking an advantage, one can temporarily stay out of the market or participate only with a small portion of funds that can withstand losses.