Bloomberg: Trump prepares for possible escalation of military actions against Iran after the US-Israel elections

According to Bloomberg, the United States is increasing deployments in preparation for a possible resumption of military strikes against Iran. Trump has repeatedly hinted that U.S. forces may resume strikes against Iran after the November 3 midterm elections and has sent a third aircraft carrier strike group and an additional 10,000 sailors and Marines toward the Persian Gulf to provide commanders with more options, although the exact timing remains uncertain.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper visited Israel this week without prior announcement and met with Netanyahu. Israel will hold elections on October 27. Meanwhile, after Iran-backed Houthi forces expanded the conflict to Saudi Arabia, attacking airports and energy facilities, the U.S. State Department has ordered the evacuation of some diplomatic personnel and their families stationed in Saudi Arabia.

A source familiar with Iran's thinking stated that Iran is preparing for a new round of bombings that may occur before and after the U.S. midterm elections and is planning retaliatory actions in the Middle East, including against Israel and the United Arab Emirates. This individual believes that the period from the end of the U.S. elections until the new Congress is sworn in in January will be the most difficult phase, with a way out being to reach an agreement that allows both sides to claim victory. Some officials from Gulf countries are concerned that the intensity of the conflict after its resumption may exceed that before the pause.

Recent diplomatic attempts to end the conflict have failed to yield results. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif stated this week that if there is sufficient evidence showing that the U.S. genuinely wishes to reach a fair, dignified, and permanent resolution to end the conflict, Iran is willing to give diplomacy another chance, but he also noted that there is currently not much reason to expect progress.

The conflict has disrupted energy transportation in the Persian Gulf, pushing Brent crude oil prices up more than 80% this year and raising U.S. gasoline prices and living costs. A Pew Research Center survey conducted from September 28 to October 4 shows that about two-thirds of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the Iran conflict, and about half of respondents expect the war to last more than a year. Reports indicate that concerns over military escalation are once again driving up oil prices and affecting the Republican Party's prospects in the midterm elections.