Bitwise: Bitcoin's implied volatility has dropped to a three-year low, and long-term holders continue to distribute chips

Bitwise released a report indicating that Bitcoin is currently holding resiliently around $82,000, a price level close to the spot ETF holding cost. Key support levels below include the short-term holder cost price of approximately $74,800 and the real market average of about $77,600. The former can serve as a reference for judging the short-term market direction, while the latter corresponds to the price level at which half of the invested capital in the market is in profit or loss. The price range formed by these two points may become the dividing line between bulls and bears.

The trading range for Bitcoin over the past 30 days and 60 days has narrowed to 1.8% and 3.0%, respectively, with the implied volatility at-the-money for each term also approaching the lower end of the distribution range over the past three years. Among them, the 3-month and 6-month implied volatility are at the 0.8 and 0.2 percentiles of historical distribution, indicating that the market's pricing for future volatility has dropped to extremely low levels.

So far this week, net inflows into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have reached $1.074 billion, rising in sync with the cumulative trading volume of the spot market, providing support for Bitcoin prices and offsetting some macro pressures. However, realized profits in the market have also increased, particularly among long-term holders. Meanwhile, the net position change indicator for long-term holders is negative, suggesting they may be in a distribution phase, which could be one reason for the ongoing consolidation of Bitcoin prices.