BIS Working Paper: Banks Raising Deposit Rates or Slowing Stablecoin Growth, USDC Reacts More Significantly

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released a working paper titled "Are Stablecoins and Bank Deposits Substitutes?" The study is based on weekly data from the United States from January 2019 to June 2025. After controlling for factors such as Bitcoin prices, government bond yields, and financial market conditions, it was found that an increase in bank deposit rates is associated with a slowdown in the growth rate of stablecoin market capitalization.

According to the benchmark model estimates, a 1 basis point (0.01 percentage point) increase in the average deposit rate corresponds to a reduction of about 3 percentage points in the cumulative growth rate of stablecoin market capitalization over the subsequent ten weeks, from an average level of approximately 15% to around 12%, rather than a decline in market capitalization. USDC's response is stronger than that of USDT. The authors note that the study cannot conclude that the total amount of bank deposits or lending decreases, and the sample only covers one cycle of high interest rates. The views in the paper belong to the authors and do not necessarily represent the position of the BIS or its member central banks.