QCP: The market is focused on this week's Federal Reserve meeting, with Bitcoin's year-end liquidity hitting a bottom and experiencing severe fluctuations

QCP released its daily market observation stating that BTC experienced significant fluctuations between $88,000 and $92,000 on Sunday, while ETH surged rapidly from $2,910 to $3,150. As liquidity continues to decline towards the end of the year, the market has become particularly sensitive to small fund flows. However, despite the strong volatility, the scale of liquidations remains relatively small, indicating a continued decline in market participation and positions this quarter. The open interest of the two major assets' perpetual contracts has decreased by 40-50% from the October highs, and retail sentiment has returned to bear market levels.

Meanwhile, the supply side is tightening noticeably. In the past two weeks, approximately 25,000 BTC have been withdrawn from trading platforms, with ETF and corporate holdings surpassing exchange balances for the first time; ETH reserves on trading platforms have also dropped to nearly a decade low, indicating that while retail investors are exiting, long-term funds are quietly accumulating. Market focus is shifting to Wednesday's Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. Although the market generally expects a 25bp rate cut, the guidance on the balance sheet will determine the year-end direction of risk assets. Currently, BTC is still fluctuating between $84,000 and $100,000, while market depth continues to deteriorate. With the year-end holidays approaching, any breakout on either side could trigger the next major trend.